There's a Catch is moving!

There's a Catch is moving to http://theresacatch.blogspot.com/ on the new Blogger Beta, with dynamic pages, labels, and all sorts of RSS feeds! Head on over to see the latest.

Blogger isn't migrating team blogs to Beta yet, so we chose a new URL in order to make the change. This would have been the URL all along except that, in the very beginning, we weren't sure the name was going to stick.

All of the old content has been transferred, and some of it has been tagged/labelled. There are still some formatting glitches consequent to the transfer process, but those will gradually go away as the rest of the pages find their categories.

McNabb for Bucs MVP

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post dismissing McNabb as a shoe-in for MVP, despite gaudy early-season numbers. Essentially, I said things would get worse for McNabb as the schedule got more difficult. After torching Dallas, he's posted his two worst games in losses to New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Against the Saints, he compiled a 91.5 passer rating, had his least yards passing and threw his 2nd pick of the year. Yesterday, against the Bucs, he threw three picks (2 were returned for TD's by CB Ronde Barber) and posted a passer rating of 83.3. Before these last two games, his low for the season was 99.3 (against the NY Giants in the Eagles' first loss).

McNabb is now 2nd in the league in passer rating (behind Indianapolis Colts QB and meat-cutting fan Peyton Manning). More importantly, his Eagles have lost two in a row and aren't in first place in the NFC East. If Jacksonville can right the ship this week, Philly could be 4-4 at the halfway point of the season ... and you can hang the TB loss right on McNabb's head.

Gambler into Foreign Substances?

Video replays show discoloration at the base of Detroit P Kenny Rogers' left thumb in the 1st inning of last night's game. Similar video footage from Rogers' two previous post-season starts (one against the Yankees and the other against the A's) showed Rogers had similar discoloration in the same spot during those games. Something is reproducible. Maybe he is able to put the pine tar on his hand in the same spot over and over. The scientific community would applaud the reproducibility. Or, maybe the way he grabs the rosin bag results in the same pattern each time he takes the mound.

I don't know what was on Rogers' hand, nor do I really care. Maybe it was dirt. Perhaps it was a foreign substance; apparently, most major league pitchers use pine tar (60-70% is a number I heard thrown around). And, if Rogers did use pine tar, or something similar, to help him grip the ball on a cold night, I don't have a problem with that. Baseball is a warm-weather sport played during the summer. I grew up in Alaska and I pitched when it was just above freezing, raining, and windy. By the end of the game, you can barely spread your fingers and every pitch is a palm ball because that's the only grip you can manage. Obviously, the elements weren't that adverse for Rogers, but let them use pine tar, or something else, if they are going to continue to schedule games in 30-40 degree weather.

Big East Revisited ... Again

The Big East is, apparently, 32-8 in non-conference games. Big East teams are 11-7 against teams from other BCS conferences (Pac-10, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, SEC). That means that Big East teams are 21-1 against teams from non-BCS conferences. It is good that teams from the Big East are beating teams that they should beat. Unfortunately, I don't think the Big East has a marquee win this year.

West Virginia: Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland (ACC), East Carolina, Mississippi State (SEC) - (5-0), (2-0)
Pittsburgh: Virginia (ACC), Citadel, Toledo, Central Florida, Michigan State (Big 10) - Loss - (4-1), (1-1)
Louisville: Kentucky (SEC), Temple, Miami (ACC), Kansas State (Big 12), Middle Tennessee State - (5-0), (3-0)
Rutgers: North Carolina (ACC), Illinois (Big 10), Ohio, Howard, Navy - (5-0), (2-0)
South Florida: McNeese State, Florida International, Central Florida, North Carolina (ACC), Kansas (Big 12) - Loss - (4-1), (1-1)
Connecticut: Rhode Island, Indiana (Big 10), Army, Wake Forest (ACC) - Loss, Navy - Loss - (3-2), (1-1)
Syracuse: Illinois (Big 10), Miami (OH), Wyoming, Wake Forest (ACC) - Loss, Iowa (Big 10) - Loss - (3-2), (1-2)
Cincinnati: Eastern Kentucky, Miami (OH), Akron, Ohio State (Big 10) - Loss, Virginia Tech (ACC) - Loss - (3-2), (0-2)
Just checking myself, that is 32 wins with 11 against BCS conference schools. And, I count 8 losses with 7 of those against BCS schools. Poor UConn, they are the only team to lose to a non-BCS conference school (Navy).

Where is the signature win for the conference? ACC losers Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina (x2), and Miami aren't among the top 25 teams in the country. The big name, Miami, beat the Houston Cougars at home by 1 point. Wake Forest is in the AP top 25 but not the USA Today list, but the Demon Deacs won their games against the Big East. MS State and Kentucky aren't among the dominant teams in the SEC ... they're bottom feeders. Indiana and Illinois (x2) reside in a similar spot in the Big 10. And, Kansas State can't even compete in the Big 12 North!

If one of the top Big East teams(WVU, Louisville, Rutgers) runs the table, they may be worthy of playing for a national championship. Unfortunately, while the league has done well in the W & L column, the strength of schedule is ridiculous. No Big East team has beaten a top 10 team from another conference. No top 15's or top 20's. None of the top 25. Miami is in the "others receiving votes" in the AP and USA Today polls.

Is there another BCS conference with the same shortcoming? Michigan beat Notre Dame and Ohio State beat Texas. Check the Big 10 off the list. USC beat Nebraska and Arkansas. The Pac-10 is represented. Tennessee knocked off #11 California. The SEC got it done despite having only 4 non-conference games per team instead of the Big East's 5.

Each Big East team plays 5 non-conference games (8 teams in the conference, so 7 games are accumulated playing everyone else). How can they not find time to schedule solid teams from someplace?

Oklahoma went to Eugene and beat the Oregon Ducks ... oh, wait ... what happened? Oregon won? No they didn't. That would be the big Big 12 win, if the Pac-10 officiating crew wasn't either corrupt or blind ... take your pick. Texas Tech beat UTEP, who is 4-2 but not in the top 25. But, the Big 12 does have the defending national champion Texas Longhorns. The ACC has a near miss with GA Tech losing to Notre Dame, 14-10. Florida State has a date with Florida later in the year and Ga Tech takes on Georgia, too. So, there are possibilities there for the ACC to right the ship.

So, recapping, Big East ... NOPE! Big 10, SEC, and Pac-10 ... CHECK! Big 12 ... ROBBED! ACC ... JURY'S OUT! Look for this topic to be revisited once more (at least) if a Big East team ends the season undefeated and is lobbying for a spot in the title game.

Randolph uses right bullets but misses elusive Cards

Former Phillies 1B and current ESPN analyst John Kruk was critical of Mets Manager Willie Randolph for his handling of his bullpen in the Mets 3-1 game 7 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS. Kruk thought Mets closer Billy Wagner should have been in the game in the top of the ninth, with the score tied 1-1, instead of Mets set-up man Aaron Heilman. I disagree.

I agree with Kruk that Wagner is the best reliever the Mets have and you want to go down with your best pitcher on the mound, not your #2 reliever, if you are going to have to swallow a loss to end your season. Do you want Michael Jordan taking the last-second jump shot? Tiger Woods standing over a tournament-clinching putt on 18?

However, last night's game wasn't setting up to be a one-shot deal. It was a tied game. The game could have lasted indefinitely, it's one of the enduring traits about baseball. The game was tied 1-1 with the bottom portion of each team's line-up due up in the ninth. The Cardinals had Edmonds, Rolen, and Molina due up in the top of the ninth. That's 5-7 in the St. Louis line-up. Heilman had just manuevered through the top of the order in the 8th, getting Eckstein, Spiezio (hitting for Wilson) and Encarnacion, with an intentional walk of Albert Pujols with 2 outs. Potentially, Heilman could work through two more innings without much danger if he could get Edmonds-Rolen-Molina, then Belliard-pinch hitter-Eckstein. Then, Billy Wagner could come in to face Spiezio, Pujols, Encarnacion, Edmonds, etc.

The Mets had the bottom of their order due up in the ninth. That was probably a contributing factor to not bringing in Wagner. The Mets would be trying to push across a run with Valentin-Chavez-pinch hitter, the 7-9 spots in the order, starting the inning. If you have the top of your order up in the ninth and think you'll score runs to win the game, you might be more willing to burn Heilman and bring in Wagner. That wasn't the case, though.

It's one of those inconvenient rules in baseball that you can't bring players back into the game after you take them out. So, Randolph couldn't use Heilman for the 8th, then Wagner for the 9th and 10th, then come back with Heilman. A bullpen has a few bullets, but how many of them do you actually trust to hit the target. Wagner had even had troubles during the series. Heilman seemed like he was breezing along. You don't want to waste a valuable commodity like that by removing him after just one inning. You also don't want to waste a valuable commodity like Wagner against the weak part of the opposition's line-up.

Willie Randolph shouldn't be 2nd guessed. His decision to leave Heilman in the game was fine. Not only was it not a bad decision, it was the correct decision. If the game had gone to the 14th tied at 1 and the Mets had to use Steve Trachsel because they'd brought Wagner in in the 9th, people would be bemoaning the fact that Randolph wasn't more careful burning through his quality relievers. Heilman made a bad pitch at a bad time to Yadier Molina. His changeup didn't sink and moved back over the fat part of the plate. Molina took advantage. That kind of thing happens. Pitchers make bad pitches. Wainwright hung some curves in the bottom half of the ninth, but the Met hitters didn't take advantage. That is why you play the games. It isn't always a strategical decision that loses the game ... and in this case, it just wasn't in the cards for the Mets.

Sylvester and Tweety

A few weeks ago, the Detroit Tigers and the St. Louis Cardinals entered the MLB playoffs with the worst performances in their last fifty games ever—19-31 and 22-28 respectively. Of course, the sensationalism is a bit frivolous: baseball has been sending eight teams to the playoffs only relatively recently. Still, raise your hand if you expected this unlikely pairing in the World Series. . . . That's what I thought.

But why don't we expect it by now? Wild card teams won the World Series three years in a row! (Granted, the Cardinals are not a wild card team. But they did have the worst record among playoff teams.) How do we account for this?

One proposal that has been made specifically with the Houston Astros in mind is that playoff teams don't need a full field of starting pitchers. If they have three good ones—e.g. Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens—they can make it past teams with better overall starting pitching. But, the Astros haven't won the World Series lately.

I'm going to suggest something completely different. And I'm going to do so without any evidence. Feel free to ignore everything I'm about to say. Maybe the home field advantage that baseball and other sports try to give teams in playoff series doesn't really work. I mean, did they ever do any analysis before constructing the 2-2-1 or 2-3-2 systems? It's great to have the first two games at home, we can probably all agree. But those games will never completely decide a series. Whereas games three and four (of five), or four and five (of seven), may be decisive. And those games are always at home for the team that is supposed to have a disadvantage.

If I can dig up some data and some free time, I'll try to confirm or debunk this intuition in the next few days. Until then, just think about it.

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Related:

• Psychological jujitsu and pitching rotations
• What are the chances?

The dirty details

Evan's not the only one who's annoyed by Rodney Harrison's late hits. In a preseason poll, 23% of NFL players voted Rodney Harrison the dirtiest. I wonder who Rodney voted for? Not himself, obviously. Says Harrison,

All I can say is as many guys as say I'm a dirty player, just as many come up and tell me they admire how I play, the hard work, the commitment, the toughness. That's the pride you're looking for. I take pride in that.

Does that mean 23% of the league admires him for his toughness, too? I'm guessing no. I'm guessing he's as deluded about his image as he is about his play.

The Patriots safety leads the list by a wide margin. Joey Porter and Jon Runyan come in second, each with 6% of the 361 votes. Now, I have no idea how Sports Illustrated conducted the poll. But it's hard to argue with these results. Imagine we thought that Porter, Runyan, and Harrison were all equally dirty—say 12% each—and that this outcome was just a statistical anomaly. Then the statistics would say, "No! Not a chance!" Okay, there's a chance. But it's like one in a trillion (according to a chi-squared test treating all other votes as one bin). I don't think that's what happened.

No, the NFL players think Rodney Harrison plays dirty, just like Evan thinks.

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Related:

• Referees in Review
• On NFL Karma, Ballroom Dance, and Long Grass

If one is good, three are definitely better!

Back in the good old days of the double reverse pass, SF 49'er dominance (heck, NFC dominance) and football not at all resembling Chinese Checkers, pass rushers were allowed to hit the QB as long as they only took a couple steps after the ball was released. Unnecessary roughness was, oddly, called when plays were unnecessarily rough in the football context. Strange.

I've watched as the league office and officials cracked down, moving from a couple to less than two, then one. Can you imagine if the NBA only allowed one step after you picked up your dribble before you took off for a lay-up? Now, as Cincinnati Bengal Justin Smith learned against Tampa on Sunday, you have to coddle the QB as you take him down, even on a sack. Not only can you not be unnecessarily rough if you want to avoid a penalty, you also have to be extra careful not to let them get injured. Maybe the officials were on heightened alert because Chris Simms had his spleen ruptured; Simms was the Bucs starting QB before being sidelined with the injury. Justin Smith received a 15-yard penalty for routinely sacking the QB. That is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever seen.

I think I have a way to improve the situation that is evolving with the treatment of QB's in the NFL. You can't go low, you can't go high, you can't lead with your helmet, and now you can't tackle them regularly. Maybe they should have flags! Now that I actually wrote that, it seems like that might be the next step for the NFL, though it isn't the recommendation I have in mind. The solution to the roughing the passer epidemic is a graduated system. Roughing the passer is currently 15 yards. Not all roughing the passer fouls are created equal, so why is there a uniform penalty. There are two face mask levels. I think there should be three face mask levels (5, 10, and 15 instead of just 5 and 15). Running into the kicker results in 5 yards, roughing the kicker gives the opponents 15 yards.

There should be multiple levels of roughing the passer, too. I'd lobby for three. If Justin Smith tackles another QB a little too hard, give him a 5 yard penalty. It would be applied to the end of the play and not an automatic first down. Serious offenses would garner the 15 yard penalty and an automatic first down. The medium level would be for slightly late hits that aren't that vicious, going low or high lightly, and other similar infractions. The 10-yarders would also be tacked on to the end of the play, with no automatic first down.

The NFL rules are evolving and that is fine. The QB position is valuable to the league and also to individual teams. I don't really want to watch Indy play without Peyton Manning. Who is the backup for Cincy now that Kitna is in Detroit? Doug Johnson or Anthony Wright. Personally, I'd love to see Tom Brady go down, but I doubt many NE fans want to see Matt Cassell with his hands under center. The penalties need to evolve with the rules, though. Fifteen yards for something that wasn't a foul last year is absurd. It's bad for the game and there is a simple solution. Graduated levels. The punishment should fit the crime. You don't line up the firing squad for someone who steals a pack of gum from the neighborhood 7-Eleven ... at least not in America!

The New Orleans Saints: Brees, Bush and Payton

The Jim Haslett-led Saints of the last few years had been classified as enigmatic. They'd lose games they weren't supposed to, win games they weren't supposed to, suffer through lengthy losing skids and then turn around and reel off a few in a row. They were a .500'ish team quarterbacked by Aaron Brooks, who experts say is one of the more talented QB's in the league, but isn't the QB you'd want for your team.

Last year, Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. The Saints were displaced. Jim Haslett and Aaron Brooks were no longer wanted. They practiced in San Antonio and played seemingly everywhere. The Saints were not the 2nd worst team in the league last year. Hurricane Katrina and the resulting circumstances put New Orleans in a position to get the USC star with the #2 pick. The poor play also allowed them to cut ties with Haslett, who'd been rumored to be on the hot seat for a couple years, and Brooks, who never quite got New Orleans over the hump.

The replacements, QB Drew Brees and Head Coach Sean Payton have been widely praised for the turnaround. Brees has played pretty well and has developed into a quality starting QB (7th in QB rating this year) in the NFL, something Brooks never seemed to do. Sean Payton has led the Saints to a 5-1 record. Reggie Bush has 480 yards from scrimmage, that's an average of 80 per game ... 80*16=1280 yards per scrimmage for the season (his current pace). Plus, he's contributing on punt returns. Those three are being hailed for turning the team around.


In 2001, the Saints were 7-9. The next year, they finished 9-7. Then, in 2003 and 2004 they posted 8-8 records. The Saints have been mediocre for years, just look at the graph (sorry, my Apple PowerBook is the reason "Wins" is upside down). They aren't an awful franchise. Last year's 3-13 record was an aberration, not a trend. This year, the Saints are 5-1 with wins over Cleveland (1-4), Green Bay (1-5), Atlanta (3-2), Tampa Bay (1-4) and Philadelphia (4-2). The two big wins, over Atlanta and Philly were at home in the renovated Superdome in front of enthusiastic - to say the least - fans. The only blemish on their record is a road loss to 4-2 Carolina, a quality opponent.

You never know how an NFL season is going to materialize, but it seems like the toughest part of the Saints' schedule is still to come. Tampa Bay has been playing better recently and they are, along with San Francisco, the easy games remaining on the schedule. They have division foes Carolina and Atlanta again, along with the big 3 from the AFC North, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also have 3 more games against the NFC East: at Dallas and NY Giants and home for the 'Skins. Hey, shouldn't they play that Saints - Giants game in the Superdome in New Orleans and just say the Giants are the home team to make up for last year?

The Saints should be better this year with Brees and Bush, over Brooks and whoever they would have taken with a mid first round draft pick. But, they aren't going to go 14-2. They shouldn't have much trouble getting to .500, but 11 wins would be an accomplishment given the remaining schedule and Deuce McAllister's ailing hamstring. That would be a significant improvement, but it's not fair to compare them to the 2005 Saints who really didn't have much of a chance ... compare them to all the years before that.

Go North young man!

Reggie Bush is a very talented athlete with speed, quickness, and good hands. He's adept at lining up in the backfield or out wide at WR and can also hurt you in the return game. However, Bush is doing his team damage with his indecisiveness and desire to bust a big play on every snap.

University of Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson was praised earlier this year for making the most of what is available to him on every run, rather than dancing around looking for a home run on every play. Peterson gained 1925 yards as a freshman. You can put up big numbers while not fulfilling potential, obviously. Now, that isn't to say that big plays won't come, but you shouldn't actively seek them out. Peterson had two 40+ yard runs against Iowa State, including the 53-yard TD run on which Peterson suffered a broken collarbone.

On one play in the Saints-Eagles game Sunday, the Saints ran a sweep to the left. LT Jamaal Brown was blocking Eagles S Sean Considine. Considine was on the sideline side of Brown for at least one of two reasons: (1) Considine was trying to prevent Bush from getting to the sideline and was attempting to force him back inside and/or (2) Brown was trying to kick him out wide so Bush could get downfield quicker and leave himself more room to manuever, rather than head straight for the sideline and then cutting it upfield. Bush needed to cut it upfield right away. He had a huge, gaping even, hole between the tackle and guard. The Eagles had one defender coming in to fill the hole, but the hole was big enough that it needed 3 defenders to fill. Bush needed to make that guy miss and then head for the endzone.

However, looking for a path where no defenders were, Bush danced, allowing the hole to close a little bit, and headed for the sideline. Brown had no choice but to hold to keep Considine off Bush and the little yardage Bush gained along the sideline was negated by the holding penalty. The dancing allowed the defense to improve their position and Bush's proximity to the sideline decreased his effectiveness in space. So, rather than a positive gain and potential for a big play if Bush could juke one defender, the Saints were backed up by a needless penalty.

Bush is a great talent, but this is the type of mistake he can't continue to make if he is going to be a legitimate great in the NFL. He can be a star dancing, but Matt Leinart is already a star, so that's not saying much.

On a related note, I'm getting tired of all-purpose yards being thrown around like they are a meaningful stat. Or, as FOX did for Bush, touches and yards. Against the Eagles, Bush had 11 runs for 25 yards (2.3 ypc with a long of 7 yards), 4 catches for 35 yards (8.8 ypc), and 29 yards on 3 punt returns (9.7 ypr). So, on 18 touches, Bush had 89 all-purpose yards. That's an average of almost 5 yards per touch. What does it mean? Not much, really.

Reggie Bush shouldn't be judged on just his rushing yardage. He is on pace for just over 500 yards rushing. That's not fair. Reggie Bush is a big contributor in the passing game; Bush is on track for 100+ receptions and 750+ yards receiving. That is how he should be used. Deuce McAllister is a better every down back than Bush. The Houston Texans passed on Bush at least in part because they thought Domanick Davis was a fine every down back and Bush would just be an accessory for the offense, and they thought Mario Williams would fill a bigger need. But, 1300 yards from scrimmage as a rookie in the NFL would be a solid accomplishment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers improve as the year goes on. He might rack up 1500 yards from scrimmage, and that is the number that I want to see. Give me yards from scrimmage, not all-purpose yards because if a player returns kicks, that's usually at least 20 yards per pop. The Saints had 3 different people return kickoffs against the Eagles and they all averaged over 20 yards per return, although Bush wasn't one of them (he just did punt returns). But, punt returns are usually 8-10 yards per, so if you get a lot of opportunities, you'll rack up considerable yardage. So, what I want to know is how Bush ranks as a punt returner. Bush is in the top tier (#8), racking up an average of 10.7, trailing Devin Hester, Kevin Faulk, Dante Hall, Terrence Wilkins, Dennis Northcutt, Allen Rossum, and Wes Welker. So, there are 32 teams and Bush is #8, so he's ahead of returners for 75% of the teams. That's solid, but not spectacular. But, lumped in with his yards from scrimmage, he's a good, not great, player.