Dubious Bonds statistics
I found this in an article about Barry Bonds in the Baltimore Sun this morning:
Bonds averaged one home run every 16.1 at-bats before the start of the alleged drug use, but since then has averaged one homer every 8.5 at-bats, the book points out.The book in question is, of course Game of Shadows, by Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams, reporters with the San Francisco Chronicle.
I sincerely hope that it is unnecessary for me to point out the idiocy of this "statistic", but I'll do it anyway. The accompanying graph tells a much clearer story. The reason is that Bonds started hitting for power long before 1999 rolled around. Because his power numbers were very different in his early years with the Pirates, let's just consider his time with the Giants.
From 1993 to 1998, Bonds had 3037 at bats, 933 hits, and 235 home runs. From 1999 to 2005, he had 2519, 825, and 297.
| Years | AB/HR | AVG |
|---|---|---|
| 1993-1998 | 12.92 | .307 |
| 1999-2005 | 8.48 | .328 |
There has definitely been an improvement in both home run frequency and batting average, but it is nothing like the doubling of output that the book is claiming.
posted by Roy @ 9:19 AM
1 comments
1 Comments:
They still don't test for HGH. Bonds has never tested positive (to the best of my knowledge). Look at the parabolic shape of his AB/HR graph, it will probably go back up as he gets older - if his knees hold up, and you can see where his career was headed. I'm too young to remember Bonds early in his career. But, I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that he is a more intelligent hitter at this point in his career than he was when he was in his 20's, and even 30's. Bonds gave Greg Maddux trouble because he was one of the few hitters who was smart enough not to be out-thought by the professor. Bonds doesn't get himself out. That's why he walks a lot. It also helps him get counts he wants and pitches he can handle.
It's possible that Bonds used performance enhancers. Or, maybe he got bigger and stronger (like Roger Clemens) as he got older and focused more on strength training. It's possible that he did so knowingly. But, does a book really "prove" Bonds used steroids or HGH? And, if they weren't banned substances or tested for, is it really cheating? If 50% of the players are using them, are all of those people cheating, or is that just the era that we are in? Singling out Bonds - because he's surly or because he's approaching HR records - seems slightly vindictive, a little like the impeachment of Bill Clinton.
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