HR Parks

On the Cubs v. Reds broadcast on ESPN today, a list of the parks where the most HR's have been hit over the past 3 years was shown. Conspicuous in its absence: Coors Field. The home of the Rockies was not among the top 3, which included Texas Rangers home park Ameriquest Field and the Reds' Great American Ball Park. What's the significance of total HR's? Not a whole lot. The number of HR's hit in a ball park has a lot to do with the park, but it also depends a lot on the hitters stepping to the plate and the pitchers on the mound. A much better statistic would be something normalized to the hitters and pitchers ... Roy, can you give me something? I bet the statistically relevant list will differ from the absolute HR list.

Looking at the Rockies and Reds from 2005, the Reds' Great American Ball Park compares favorably to the Rockies' home, Coors Field. The Rockies averaged 1 HR every 32.8 AB's at home, compared to 1 every 42.5 AB's on the road. That means, it takes 29.3% more AB's on the road to hit the same number of HR's. The Reds' numbers are 1 in 21.8, 1 in 29.4, and 34.6% more AB's on the road. Thus, it appears that the Great American Ball Park is a slightly better HR park than Coors Field. However, it appears that they are in the same echelon of hitter friendly yards. The Reds are significantly more powerful, as a team, than the Rockies. This is a main reason for the discrepancy in HR's at the two parks.

04/08/06
Unfortunately, the analysis is not that simple. The unbalanced schedule, not to mention interleague play, skews the road stats. For instance, the Rockies have to play more games in San Diego than the Reds do. The Padres' home ball park isn't exactly a launching pad. However, if the Rockies have less of an advantage on the road (playing a lot of games at SD, LAD and SF), Coors Field should rate better relatively. So, perhaps the Great American Ball Park is the optimal place for stepping into the batters box. But, it's not just a matter of absolute numbers. They don't tell the whole story about the field ... players in the games help determine the numbers! Why else would George shell out $200 million to try to buy a championship?