Minnesota Twins: Jay's AL World Series "Lock"

Those of you familiar with ESPN's "Around the Horn" will understand the title of the post. For those out there who aren't regular watchers, the Twins were picked as a lock to represent the AL in this year's World Series by one of the panelists. This prediction is undeniably bold (the Yankees would be the obvious pick), but also irrefutably absurd because it is based on a faulty premise, namely that Johan Santana can carry the Twins, almost single-handedly, to the World Series, and ultimately, to the MLB Championship.

The fact that the Twins win almost every game that Santana starts was the foundation of the argument. Santana is now 18-5, with his last loss coming July 9th at Texas. So, he hasn't lost in a little over two months. That span covers 12 starts; Santana has recorded 9 wins and 3 ND's, but the Twins have won all twelve games. Thus, the idea that the Twins are a lock when Santana starts was spawned.

So, the reasoning went, in a 5-game series, Santana would throw twice, and the Twins would only have to win one of the other three games. Seems possible. Then, in a 7-game series, Santana could throw games 1, 4, and 7. That's three of the four wins the Twins would need to advance to the World Series! Surely, the Twins could scavenge one win in the four games not pitched by Santana. And, by the same reasoning, the Twins would breeze through the NL challenger with wins by Santana in three of the 7 games, right?

Wait just a second, Santana is going to pitch games 1 & 4 of the division series and 1, 4 and 7 of the championship series? With Franciso Liriano healthy, I'd say the Twins would have a great shot at winning the entire thing, but relying on Santana to win every game is tough, especially when he will be continually brought back on short rest because the staff is ravaged with injuries. Santana is winning games pitching every fifth day, with some easy starts against weak line-ups thrown in. Should you really count on Santana beating the Yankees three times in seven games when he has to face, essentially, an all-star lineup of Damon, Jeter, Abreu, A-Rod, Giambi, Sheffield, Matsui, Posada and Cano? The Yankees are patient and work the count. Plus, there isn't any part of that line-up that a pitcher can ease up and get cheap outs.

With a healty Francisco Liriano (and a healthy Brad Radke), the Twins would have a quality 4-man rotation (with whoever is going to be the #2 as the #4 under the optimal scenario). They could start things off with Santana and Liriano in the hope of going up 2-0 early. Then, they could throw Radke in game 3, hoping to finish off the first round. If there was a game 4, they could bring Santana back or save him for a game 5, if necessary. If the Twins only had to use Santana and Liriano each once during the first round, they'd be in prime position to throw them games 1 and 2 of the championship series. Hypothetically, they could wait to bring the duo back until games 6 and 7, but more likely they'd throw them in games 5 and 6. If they were ready, they could try to close it out in games 4 and 5. I could see a similar thing happening in the World Series, depending on how the AL championship series went and when they could come back in the World Series.

If the Twins win the AL, Johan Santana will probably have a big left hand in it. However, it's not likely and it's definitely not a lock. The Twins might not even make the playoffs, although it seems likely that they will, and I'd put their chances of getting to the World Series at 1/8, if I had to set the line.