What does it all mean?

If you watch basketball, you've undoubtedly heard the terms "bench points", "points in the paint" and "points off turnovers" thrown around. Perhaps, you have allowed the commentators (who are supposed to be "basketball experts" of some sort) to convince you that these stats are meaningful. Maybe you're skeptical, like we are, that these stats are used as evidence to show why one team is beating the other, when they are really just artifacts of how the game is going.

Earlier, we looked at turnovers and how much they are actually worth (dispelling the idea of a 4 point swing - I hope). Points off turnovers are often strongly correlated with the number of turnovers by the opposition. Go figure, the team that turns the ball over more will often lose. Is it really the points off the turnovers, or is it the forfeited opportunities to score by the team that is making more mistakes?

During the NCAA Tournament, I'll keep you posted on "bench points". I have a strong suspicion that they don't really matter that much ... meaning that I do not believe they are a strong predictor of game outcome. For instance, Duke's bench was outscored by BC's 13-5 on Sunday in the ACC Championship game. Duke won. Florida beat South Carolina in the SEC Championship game ... the Gators off the bench beat the Gamecocks off the bench 6-5. Kansas got more bench production than Texas (18-8) in the Jayhawks win in the Big 12 Championship. We'll see how the tourney goes.